I Will Miss You Suga For FX:EURJPY By Fobonacci

Fundamental analysis

EUR strong:

Germany’s economy is recovering faster than expected, ECB boosted its GDP and Inflation expectations for 2021, last GDP was in expansion, German labour market rising and European inflation shooting at the 10-year high in august (+2,2%). Note that the ECB is not as bullish as the BOE but still okay to pair EUR with JPY as the BoJ is the most bearish among developed countries’ central banks.

JPY weak:

Pandemic situation not getting better. Extension of lockdowns and rise of new cases in big regions. People not spending money. Risk for exports. Inflation will not hit 2% in the years to come. BoJ will stay bearish for a long time. Economy growth could take a hit in Q3 2021.

Technical analysis

Trend lines confluences, seller’s profit taking price, 78,6% deep pullback from last impulse up, reversed head and shoulder forming (Too early to confirm. Needs to break the neckline).

Market Sentiment

Institutions: Taking profits from the current impulse down.

Retail noobs: Panic selling in smaller timeframes.

What I do

I put a buy limit @ 129,07 (purple circle) and I wait for the price to hit it. If the price does not hit my purple circle, there is no valid trade.

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